Leeds United analysts’ message to players chimes with Daniel Farke mantra as squad faith put to test

Defeats by Coventry City and Blackburn Rovers over the past fortnight have exposed a weakness in promotion-hunting Leeds' game, namely their inability to break down teams who sit deep and soak up pressure after taking the lead against Daniel Farke's side.

Sandwiched between the two disappointing results was a 0-0 draw versus Sunderland in which Leeds' attack was thwarted and stifled, producing just 0.55 in the way of xG, which is the measure of how valuable a team's chances are and how likely they are to result in a goal. The home game against the Black Cats was the lowest xG total Leeds have generated at Elland Road this season and their lowest since the second week of the campaign, when a depleted Whites side went down 1-0 to Birmingham City.

Still, Sunderland were limited to a meagre 0.2 xG themselves, which means the goalless draw that ultimately played out was probably a fair result.

When teams experience troughs and a downturn in form, managers tend to say they are not worried so long as their sides are creating chances - and for what it's worth, Leeds are, they just aren't putting them away. According to Opta data, Leeds have registered 2.9 xG in their last three matches, but scored one goal. By contrast, they've allowed 2.4 xG and conceded three goals, which has led to the two defeats and one draw.

Since xG is an average, there is a tendency for a team's performance in this regard to move towards the mean over a period of time. This is to say, Leeds are unlikely to continue putting up good goalscoring chances without converting during the final three games of the season. What it does mean, though, is Leeds must be clinical and start finding the net from some of their lower value chances.

For the season, Leeds have produced 57.43 xG and scored 59 goals from open play so the team are on pace, slightly overperforming but by an amount that suggests their finishing is in line with the quality of their chance creation.

Nerves, tension and anxieties will be heightened in the terraces during Leeds' remaining fixtures, which is understandable given what's at stake, but Leeds must remain 'cool in the head' as Farke has stressed on several occasions throughout the season, but especially during the 'crunch time period'.

The message Leeds’ analysts would likely impart to those whose hope has deserted them after a difficult two weeks is, so long as the team continue to create chances at their current rate, they will score goals in the final three. As for keeping them out, Leeds' xG Conceded (xGC) during 2024 has only once exceeded the single-game xG total United have themselves produced. In essence, Leeds have created better chances with greater frequency than their opponents in 16 of their 18 league fixtures since the turn of the year, which works out at 88 per cent.